A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between April 2 and April 9. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity in the region’s service sector declined significantly for a second consecutive month, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s April Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index came in at -19.8, its lowest level in more than a year. The business climate index dropped nine points to -60.7, its lowest level in more than four years, suggesting the business climate was considerably worse than normal. Employment held steady, and wage growth remained moderate. Supply availability worsened. Input price increases and selling price increases were little changed. After turning pessimistic about the outlook last month, firms became even more negative, with half now expecting activity to decline in the months ahead.
Activity Continues to Decline
Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region fell at a substantial pace for a second consecutive month, according to the April survey. The headline business activity index came in at -19.8. Twenty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 41 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index fell nine points to -60.7, its lowest level since early 2021, with two-thirds of respondents saying that the business climate was worse than normal. Employment Holds Steady
The employment index moved up to 1.3, indicating that employment levels were little changed. The wages index held steady at 34.8, a sign that wage increases remained moderate. After rising to its highest level in nearly two years in March, the prices paid index was little changed at 57.6. The prices received index edged down to 26.0. The supply availability index fell nine points to -11.7, suggesting supply availability declined. Outlook Remains Very Pessimistic
After plunging twenty-five points last month, the index for future business activity sank another twenty-three points to -26.6, its lowest reading since April 2020, indicating that firms expect a significant decline in activity in the months ahead. The index for the future business climate also fell twenty-three points, to -50.0, marking its lowest level since 2009 and suggesting the business climate is expected to remain considerably worse than normal. The future employment index turned negative. The future supply availability index dropped to -36.1, with 44 percent of firms expecting supply availability to be worse in six months. Capital spending plans turned sharply negative. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |